Ba za a yi wa mutum aiki ba? Robo Faber zamanin

A cewar wani bincike da Daren Acemoglu na Cibiyar Fasaha ta Massachusetts da Pascual Restrepo na Jami’ar Boston, aka buga a watan Afrilun bana, kowane mutum-mutumi da ke cikin masana’anta yana lalata ayyuka uku zuwa shida a cikinsa. Waɗanda suka kasance a cikin ruɗin cewa watakila tare da wannan aiki na atomatik ɗaukar ayyuka ƙari ne, sun rasa tunaninsu.

Masu binciken sun yi nazarin yadda sarrafa kansar masana'antu ya shafi kasuwar ƙwadago ta Amurka a cikin 1990-2007. Sun kammala cewa kowane ƙarin mutum-mutumi ya rage aikin yi a wannan yanki da kashi 0,25-0,5% kuma ya rage albashi da kashi XNUMX-XNUMX%.

A lokaci guda karatun Daren Ku zoGlu da Pascual Restrepo ba da shaida cewa aikin mutum-mutumi yana da tasiri kuma yana da tsada. A cewar Hukumar Kula da Robotics ta Duniya, ana amfani da mutum-mutumi na masana'antu miliyan 1,5 zuwa miliyan 1,75 a halin yanzu, kuma wasu masana na ganin adadin zai ninka ko ma karuwa nan da shekarar 2025.

A farkon 2017, The Economist ya ruwaito cewa nan da 2034, 47% na ayyuka za a sarrafa ta atomatik. "Babu wata gwamnati a duniya da ta shirya don wannan," 'yan jarida sun yi gargadin, suna yin hasashen ingantacciyar igiyar ruwa ta canjin zamantakewa da za ta haifar.

Hakanan, kamfanin tuntuɓar PricewaterhouseCooper, a cikin hasashensa na kasuwar Burtaniya, yayi magana game da hasashen asarar 30% na ayyuka a cikin shekaru goma sha biyar masu zuwa, tare da kusan 80% a cikin muƙamai na gudanarwa. Gidan yanar gizon bayar da aikin Gumtree yayi iƙirarin a cikin bincikensa cewa kusan rabin ayyukan (40%) a cikin kasuwar aikin yau za a maye gurbinsu da injina cikin shekaru XNUMX masu zuwa.

Aikin tunani ya bace

Dokta Carl Frey na Jami'ar Oxford, a cikin wata takarda mai mahimmanci shekaru da yawa da suka gabata game da makomar aikin yi, ya yi hasashen cewa kashi 47% na ayyuka za su fuskanci babban hatsarin bacewa saboda sarrafa kayan aiki. An soki masanin kimiyyar saboda karin gishiri, amma bai canza ra'ayinsa ba. A halin yanzu, tarin bayanai da bincike da alama suna tabbatar da ba wai kawai yana da gaskiya ba, har ma yana iya yin la'akari da tasirin juyin juya halin mutum-mutumi akan aiki.

Littafin ya karya tarihin duniya kwanan nan. "Lokacin Inji na Biyu" na Erik Brynjolfsson da Andrew McAfi'gowadanda suka rubuta game da girma barazana ga ƙananan fasaha ayyuka. “Fasahar ta kasance tana lalata ayyukan yi, amma kuma ta samar da su. Wannan al'amarin ya kasance shekaru ɗari biyu da suka gabata," in ji Brynjolfsson a wata hira da aka yi kwanan nan. “Duk da haka, tun daga shekarun 90, adadin ma’aikata da yawan jama’a yana raguwa cikin sauri. Ya kamata hukumomin gwamnati su yi la’akari da wannan al’amari yayin gudanar da manufofin tattalin arziki.”

McAfee ya shaida wa Wired a watan Fabrairun wannan shekara cewa ba hangen nesa na injuna ba ne, tashin Skynet da kuma Terminator ne ke damun sa, amma hangen nesan yadda mutane ke rasa ayyukansu cikin wani yanayi mai ban tsoro. ta hanyar robotics da sarrafa kansa. Masanin tattalin arziki ya ja hankali ba ga aiki na zahiri ba, amma ga kasuwancin ƙwadago da ke haɓaka tun shekarun 80. matsalar rage yawan ma'aikatan farar fata waɗanda, aƙalla a yanayin Amurka, sun zama matsakaicin aji. Idan kuma akwai irin wannan aiki, to ko dai albashin ya yi kadan, ko kuma albashin ya fi matsakaicin yawa.

Idan muka kalli fasahohin da ake haɓakawa a halin yanzu, sakamakon jerin ayyukan da za a kawar da su na iya daɗe da mamaki. Domin muna tsammanin, alal misali, barazanar za ta shafi? Masu aiki da kyamarar TV? A halin yanzu, kamfanin na Jamus KUKA ya riga ya gwada mutum-mutumi wanda ba kawai zai maye gurbin masu aiki ba, har ma ya rubuta "mafi kyau kuma mafi kwanciyar hankali". An riga an fara amfani da motoci masu kyamarori a talabijin a wasu wurare.

Don sana'o'i kamar likitan hakori, ɗan wasan kwaikwayo, koci, mai kashe gobara ko limamin coci, zai yi wahala a sami wanda zai maye gurbin robot. Akalla haka ake gani ya zuwa yanzu. Koyaya, a nan gaba ba a cire wannan gaba ɗaya ba, tunda an riga an ƙirƙiri injuna ko tsarin waɗanda aƙalla sun cika ayyukansu. Sun ce a masana'antar motoci, robots ba za su taɓa maye gurbin mutane a wasu mukamai ba. A halin da ake ciki, masana'antun na'ura na mutum-mutumi, kamar kamfanin Yaskawa na Japan, wanda a lokaci guda ya kera na'ura don gina gine-gine daga tubalin Lego, suna da ra'ayi daban-daban a kan wannan batu. Kamar yadda ya juya, za ku iya sarrafa matsayi ta atomatik matakan gudanarwa.

Robot ilimi na Koriya ta Kudu Engkey

Misali, ma'aikatan Deep Knowledge suna da wani mutum-mutumi da ke dauke da bayanan sirri a matsayin daya daga cikin shugabanninsu. Memba na Hukumar Kulawa saboda akwai wani muhimmin mahimmanci (od) - ko kuma wajen, software da aka shirya don nazarin yanayin tallace-tallace dangane da bayanan da aka bayar. Ba kamar mutane ba, hankali na wucin gadi ba shi da motsin rai da hankali kuma yana dogara ne kawai akan bayanan da aka bayar, ƙididdige yiwuwar wasu yanayi (da kuma tasirin kasuwanci).

Masu kudi? Tun daga shekarun 80, ayyukan masu hannun jari da dillalai sun karbe su ta hanyar hadaddun algorithms waɗanda suka fi ɗan adam inganci wajen ɗaukar bambance-bambancen farashin hannun jari da samun kuɗi daga gare ta.

Lauyoyi? Me ya sa? Kamfanin lauyoyi na Amurka BakerHostetler shi ne na farko a duniya da ya dauki wani lauya mai karfin AI a bara. Wata na'ura mai suna Ross, wacce IBM ta kera, tana mu'amala da barnar kamfanoni sa'o'i 24 a rana - tana da lauyoyi kusan hamsin da ke aiki a kai.

malamai? A Koriya ta Kudu, inda malaman Ingilishi ke da wuya a samu, na'urorin koyar da mutum-mutumi na farko suna koyar da yaren Shakespeare. An gabatar da shirin gwaji na wannan aikin a makarantun firamare. A cikin 2013, injinan koyon harsunan waje na Engkey sun kasance a cikin makarantu har ma da kindergarten, waɗanda malaman Ingilishi daga wasu ƙasashe ke sarrafa su.

Ƙarfafa masana'antu da rashin aikin yi a ƙasashen duniya na uku

A cewar Ƙungiyar Ƙwallon Ƙwallon Ƙasa ta Duniya (IFR), an sayar da ita a duniya a cikin 2013. Robots masana'antu dubu 179.

Abin sha'awa shine, juyin juya halin sarrafa kansa na masana'antu, haɗe tare da haɓaka bugu na 3D da fasahohin ƙari (wanda ke da alaƙa da bugu na 3D da abubuwan da suka samo asali), na iya haifar da asarar aiki har ma a cikin ƙasashen da ake kira. duniya ta uku tare da arha aiki. A can ne shekaru da yawa suna dinka, alal misali, takalman wasanni don sanannun kamfanonin duniya. Yanzu, alal misali, takalman Nike Flyknit ana yin su gaba ɗaya ta atomatik, daga abubuwan da aka buga na 3D, waɗanda aka ɗinka su da zaren launi da yawa a cikin kayan aikin mutum-mutumi, suna tunawa da tsoffin wuraren aikin saƙa - amma ba tare da mutane ba. Tare da irin wannan aiki da kai, kusancin shuka ga mai siye ya fara la'akari da shi don rage farashin jigilar kayayyaki. Ba abin mamaki bane, Adidas na Jamus yana kera samfuransa na Primeknit bisa ga fasaha iri ɗaya da takalman Nike da aka ambata a ƙasarsu, kuma ba wani wuri a tsakiyar Asiya ba. Kawai ɗaukar ayyuka daga masana'antun Asiya baya ba ku ayyuka da yawa a Jamus. Masana'antar mutum-mutumi ba ta buƙatar ma'aikata da yawa.

Canje-canje a cikin tsarin aikin mutane da mutummutumi a cikin 2009-2013.

Kamfanin na Analyst Boston Consulting Group ya sanar a cikin 2012 cewa, godiya ga aiki da kai, fasaha na mutum-mutumi, da kuma ci gaban masana'antu ƙari, nan da 30 2020% na Amurka shigo da daga China za a iya yin a Amurka. Alama ce ta zamanin da kamfanin Mori Seiki na Japan ya buɗe masana'antar kera kayayyakin mota tare da haɗa su a California. Duk da haka, akwai, ba shakka, babu ma'aikata. Injin ke yin injuna, kuma da alama ba kwa buƙatar kunna fitulun wannan masana'anta.

Wataƙila ba ƙarshen aikin ba ne, amma yana kama da karshen aikin ga mutane da yawa. Irin wannan ɗimbin hasashen ƙila yana da faɗi sosai. Masana sun fara magana da murya ɗaya - babban ɓangaren kasuwar aiki zai ɓace a cikin shekaru masu zuwa. Bangaren waɗannan hasashen shine sakamakon zamantakewa. Sun fi wuya a yi tunanin. Mutane da yawa har yanzu suna tunanin cewa karatun doka ko banki shine tikiti mai kyau zuwa kyakkyawan aiki da rayuwa mai kyau. Ba wanda ya ce su sake tunani.

Samar da takalman Nike Flyknit

Ra'ayin da bai dace ba game da kasuwar ƙwadago, wanda a hankali ake maye gurbinsa da robobi, aƙalla a ƙasashen da suka ci gaba, ba wai yana nufin raguwar rayuwa da rashi ba. Idan ya ragu kuma ya ragu - ya maye gurbinsa, dole ne ya biya haraji. Wataƙila ba robot ba ne, amma tabbas kamfanin da ke amfani da shi. Mutane da yawa suna tunanin haka, misali, Bill Gates, wanda ya kafa Microsoft.

Wannan zai ba da damar duk wadanda aka kwace daga aiki da injina su yi rayuwa mai kyau - watau. saya abin da robobin da ke yi musu aiki ke samarwa.