Hasashen dogon lokaci na kasuwar jiragen sama
Cibiyar gwaji da tattara kaya ta Airbus a filin jirgin sama na Toulouse-Blagnac a Faransa. Hotunan Airbus
Kamfanonin kera jiragen sadarwa sun buga bugu na gaba na hasashen dogon lokaci na kasuwar balaguron jirgin sama. Bisa ga kididdigar su, a cikin shekaru ashirin masu zuwa, 2018-2037, sufuri zai karu da 2,5 sau, kuma kamfanonin jiragen sama za su saya: bisa ga Boeing - 42,7 dubu jirgin sama ($ 6,35 trillion), kuma bisa ga Airbus - 37,4 dubu. A cikin hasashenta. , Kamfanin kera na Turai yana mu'amala da motoci masu karfin kujeru sama da 100, da na Amurka mai kananan jiragen sama. Embraer yayi kiyasin bukatar jiragen sama na yanki mai karfin kujeru 150 a dubu 10,5. Raka'a, da MFR na turboprops da dubu 3,02. Boeing manazarta sun yi hasashen cewa a cikin shekaru ashirin da adadin jiragen sama zai karu daga halin yanzu 24,4 48,5. har zuwa raka'a dubu 8,8, kuma yawan kasuwancin sufurin jiragen sama zai kasance dala tiriliyan XNUMX.
A tsakiyar shekara, masana'antun jiragen sama na sadarwa sun buga bayanan yau da kullun na hasashen dogon lokaci na kasuwar sufurin jiragen sama. Binciken Boeing ana kiransa Outlook Market Outlook - CMO (Kasuwancin Kasuwanci na yanzu) da Hasashen Kasuwar Duniya na Airbus - GMF (Hasashen Kasuwar Duniya). A cikin bincikensa, wani masana'anta na Turai yana mu'amala da jiragen sama masu karfin kujeru sama da 100, yayin da wani kamfanin kera na Amurka ke hulda da jiragen yankin mai kujeru 90. A gefe guda kuma, hasashen da Bombardier, Embraer da ATR suka shirya sun mayar da hankali kan jiragen saman yanki, wanda shine batun sha'awar samar da su.
A cikin kisa daban-daban, manazarta kasuwa sun kiyasta: yawan jigilar iska da haɓaka jiragen ruwa ta yankuna na duniya da yanayin kuɗi don aiki na kasuwar jigilar iska a cikin shekaru ashirin masu zuwa 2018-2037. Shirye-shiryen sake fitar da hasashen na baya-bayan nan an riga an yi nazari mai zurfi game da zirga-zirgar ababen hawa a kan mafi yawan hanyoyin zirga-zirga da kuma sauye-sauye masu yawa da aka yi a cikin jiragen ruwa, wanda ke da manyan dillalai, da kuma farashin aiki na sassan hanyoyin guda ɗaya. kasuwar tafiye-tafiye ta jirgin sama. Ana amfani da hasashen ba kawai ta hanyar sarrafa jiragen sama da masu kera jiragen sadarwa ba, har ma da ma'aikatan banki, manazarta kasuwannin jiragen sama da hukumomin gwamnati da abin ya shafa.
Hasashen zirga-zirgar jiragen sama
Masu sharhi kan harkokin sufurin jiragen sama, waɗanda suka shirya sabbin abubuwan da aka fitar na hasashe na dogon lokaci, sun tashi ne daga gaskiyar cewa matsakaicin ci gaban tattalin arzikin shekara-shekara na GDP na duniya (samfurori na cikin gida) zai kasance 2,8%. Kasashe a yankin: Asiya-Pacific - 3,9%, Gabas ta Tsakiya - 3,5%, Afirka - 3,3% da Kudancin Amurka - 3,0% za su yi rikodin ci gaban ci gaban shekara-shekara na tattalin arzikinsu, kuma ƙasa da matsakaicin duniya: Turai - 1,7, 2 %, Arewacin Amurka - 2% da Rasha da Asiya ta Tsakiya - 4,7%. Ci gaban tattalin arziƙin zai samar da matsakaicin haɓakar haɓakar zirga-zirgar fasinja a matakin XNUMX%. Ci gaban sufuri, fiye da tattalin arziki, zai kasance mafi yawa sakamakon: 'yantar da kasuwa da ci gaba da fadada hanyar sadarwa, rage farashin tikiti, da kuma tasiri mai kyau na ci gaban kasuwancin duniya da yawon shakatawa na kasa da kasa. A karon farko a cikin shekaru da yawa, muna ganin ci gaban tattalin arziki a duk yankuna na duniya yana haifar da ƙarin abubuwan ƙarfafa tafiye-tafiyen jiragen sama a duniya. Mataimakin Shugaban Kasuwancin Boeing Randy Tinseth ya ce "Muna ganin ci gaba mai karfi ba kawai a kasuwanni masu tasowa a China da Indiya ba, har ma a cikin manyan kasuwanni a Turai da Arewacin Amirka," in ji Mataimakin Shugaban Kasuwancin Boeing Randy Tinseth a cikin sharhin hasashen.
Babban abin da zai haifar da haɓaka zirga-zirgar jiragen sama shine haɓakar yawan jama'a da haɓakawa sannu a hankali na matsakaici (watau mutanen da ke samun tsakanin $ 10 da $ 100 a rana, ana daidaita waɗannan adadin don ikon siyan kuɗin kowane mutum). Manazarta na Airbus sun kididdige cewa a cikin shekaru ashirin da suka gabata yawan al'ummar duniya zai karu da kashi 16% (daga biliyan 7,75 zuwa biliyan 9,01), sannan kuma masu matsakaicin matsayi da kashi 69% (daga biliyan 2,98 zuwa 5,05). Mafi girma, ninki biyu na yawan jama'ar tsakiyar aji za a rubuta a Asiya (daga 1,41 zuwa 2,81 mutane biliyan), kuma mafi girma kuzarin kawo cikas zai kasance a Afirka (daga 220 zuwa 530 miliyan). A cikin manyan kasuwannin Turai da Arewacin Amurka, girman da aka yi hasashen girman matsakaici ba zai canza ba kuma zai kasance a matakin miliyan 450-480 (Turai) da miliyan 260 (Arewacin Amurka), bi da bi. Ya kamata a lura cewa matsakaicin matsakaici a halin yanzu shine kashi 38% na al'ummar duniya, kuma a cikin shekaru ashirin rabonsa zai karu zuwa 56%. Ƙarfin da ke haifar da haɓakar tafiye-tafiyen jirgin sama zai kasance ci gaba da haɓaka birane da haɓakar arziƙin kasuwanni masu tasowa tare da babbar dama (ciki har da: Indiya, Sin, Kudancin Amirka, Turai ta Tsakiya da Rasha). Tare da jimillar mutane biliyan 6,7 a wadannan yankuna, zirga-zirgar jiragen sama za ta karu da kashi 5,7% a kowace shekara, kuma adadin mutanen da ke son yin tafiya ta jirgin zai rubanya sau uku. A cikin 'yan shekaru masu zuwa, kasuwar zirga-zirgar jiragen sama ta cikin gida ta kasar Sin za ta zama mafi girma a duniya. A daya hannun kuma, a kasuwannin da suka ci gaba (ciki har da Arewacin Amurka, Yammacin Turai, Japan, Singapore, Koriya ta Kudu da Ostiraliya) masu yawan jama'a fiye da biliyan 3,1, zirga-zirgar zirga-zirgar zirga-zirgar za ta karu da kashi 10%. Bukatar sufurin jiragen sama zai haifar da ci gaban filayen jirgin sama, gami da wuraren canja wuri da ke kusa da manyan biranen (suna samar da fasinjoji sama da 2037 a kowace rana akan hanyoyin tafiya mai nisa). A cikin 64, kashi biyu bisa uku na al'ummar duniya za su zauna a birane, kuma adadin manyan biranen zai karu daga 210 na yanzu zuwa 2027 (a cikin 328) da 2037 (a cikin XNUMX).
Yankuna masu tasowa masu ƙarfi za su kasance: Kudancin Amurka, yankin Asiya-Pacific da Gabas ta Tsakiya, waɗanda za su yi girma a matsakaicin adadin shekara na 5-5,5%, da Afirka - 6%. A cikin manyan kasuwanni biyu na Turai da Arewacin Amurka, haɓaka zai kasance matsakaici a 3,1% da 3,8%, bi da bi. Tun da waɗannan kasuwanni za su yi girma a hankali fiye da matsakaicin duniya (4,7%), rabon su a cikin zirga-zirgar duniya zai ragu sannu a hankali. A shekarar 1990, hadakar kaso na Amurka da na Turai ya kai kashi 72%, a shekarar 2010 - 55%, shekaru goma sha biyar da suka wuce - 49%, a cikin shekaru ashirin wannan kason zai ragu zuwa 37%. Duk da haka, wannan ba sakamakon babban jikewa bane kawai stagnation.
Haɓaka zirga-zirgar jiragen sama na shekara-shekara a cikin 'yan kashi kaɗan zai haifar da gaskiyar cewa a cikin shekaru 20 adadin fasinjoji zai karu daga biliyan 4,1 zuwa biliyan 10 na yanzu, da jigilar kayayyaki daga 7,6 tiriliyan pkm (pass.-km) zuwa kusan tiriliyan 19 pkm. . Boeing ya kiyasta cewa a cikin 2037 yankunan da suka fi yawan zirga-zirga za su kasance hanyoyin gida a China (pkm tiriliyan 2,4), Arewacin Amurka (pkm tiriliyan 2,0), Turai da kudu maso gabashin Asiya, gami da haɗin gwiwa daga Turai zuwa Arewacin Amurka (0,9 tiriliyan pkm). . ) da Gabas ta Tsakiya. Kasuwar Asiya a duniya a halin yanzu yana da kashi 33%, kuma a cikin shekaru 40 zai kai kashi 25%. A daya hannun kuma, kasuwar Turai za ta fado daga kashi 21% na yanzu zuwa 21%, sannan kasuwar Arewacin Amurka daga kashi 16% zuwa 5%. Kasuwancin Kudancin Amurka ba zai canza ba tare da kaso na 4%, Rasha da Asiya ta Tsakiya - 3% da Afirka - XNUMX%.
